Looking Ahead
In the first part of this article, I wrote about the OODA loop which describes how we make decisions. If you haven't read the first part, I'd recommend it, I'll wait... We can use our understanding of the OODA loop to help us make faster decisions through preparation. This also gives us the possibility of predicting or even directing our opponent's actions.

The concept of predicting your opponent's actions is tantalizing, but sounds nearly impossible. It's not some sort of Jedi mind-trick, though. There are only so many units on the board and they have to follow the rules of the game. In the game of chess, players often concentrate on openings (where you know the positions of all the pieces and there are only so many moves that can be made. They will also pay attention to the end-game. Although there are more possible positions here, there are many fewer pieces to consider. On the other hand, the mid-game has too many possibilities for memorization. On the other hand, good chess players can often anticipate what their opponents will do in several ways.

First off, let's look at how it is possible to predict an opponent's moves. As mentioned above, there are a limited number of pieces in a game of 40k (generally fewer capable of independent movement than in chess.) In addition, there are certain rules they must follow. Most units can only move 6" and cannot move within 1" of an enemy unit in the movement phase, for example. Few units are capable of ignoring terrain or passing over enemy units. Some predictions are easy to make. Tyranid armies are generally going to move forward until they can charge. Imperial Guard armies are likely to stay put and shoot. Looking closer, individual units follow other behaviors as well. A unit of Devastators is unlikely to charge or even move unless it absolutely has to. This forms the beginning of being able to predict movements. Consider each unit briefly and look at its likely roles and choices. Most units will have their choices spelled out fairly carefully. Units that have clearly defined roles are unlikely to do anything that will jeopardize that role, except in extreme circumstances such as an end-of-the-game objective grab. A unit with multiple heavy weapons that spends more than one turn doing something other than shooting its heavy weapons will be wasting a huge amount of potential. While there will be a few times where it will have to move or might even have to charge an enemy unit, those should be very few and far between. Remember that your opponent is trying to get the most out of his or her army so they will attempt to use units in the most efficient way whenever possible.

Once the easy predictions are out of the way (Tanks will shoot, assault units will charge, etc.) then you can scan the opposing army for units without a clearly defined role. These might be generalist units that are not heavily equipped one way or the other. Alternately, they might have a minimized or non-existant role in this particular game. Maybe your opponent has a unit of assault Marines, but you have a Genestealer army, relegating them to a fodder or shooting role. Perhaps there is a heavy antitank squad but you don't have any vehicles in your army. These units are the ones that may do unpredictable things. If they cannot be used effectively in their designed role, they have less to lose by doing unusual things. Other units are unpredictable due to their nature. Tau Drones, for example, are fantastic for doing unusual things. They aren't terribly expensive, so it doesn't hurt to lose them. They don't have a lot of firepower, so missing out on a few turns of shooting isn't a big deal. Finally, they have relatively swift movement, allowing them to rapidly relocate and go where they can cause the most havoc. With unpredictable units, it is best to look at their potential movement over a turn or two as a bubble or circle. Compare the circle with the locations or planned locations of your units and consider the top two or three options where they might cause the most trouble for you. Know that your opponent will be considering much the same options and plan accordingly.

What does the OODA Loop have to do with Predicting Your Opponent?
OODA shows you how to make your own decisions faster, giving you more time to consider your opponent's decisions. In addition, the preparation required to make those decisions faster also gives you an indication of what your opponent will need to do. Likewise, understanding the four steps of the cycle (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) can help you 'get inside your opponent's head' and understand what decisions he or she is likely to make.

The first step is Observing. If you can keep an opponent from observing something, he or she may not register it as a problem until it is too late. An example might be placing an assault unit directly behind one of your units and just barely in range of another friendly unit. The opponent may not realize that the assault unit is supporting the farther unit and attack it where they would have left the directly supported unit alone for fear of retribution. Alternately, you can attempt to ensure that the opponent recognizes a particular unit as a threat. You might hit his or her favorite unit with it, or make sure that it performs its attack at the very beginning or very end of the phase as those tend to be noticed more. In the Orient step, you might attempt to confuse them by moving fast units in one direction in a threatening manner, only to have them pull back or redirect onto your real target the very next turn. I'll cover the Decision step below.

Helping them Choose
It is also possible to assist your opponent in making a choice. This might be by offering them simple bait, such as a small unit ahead your main force that opposing assault units will charge right into. When the unit evaporates at the end of the assault phase, the assault unit will be stuck in front of your guns. On the other hand, you might place some heavy antitank weapons covering a certain area of the battlefield to convince your opponent to move his or her tanks elsewhere. Asking if you have line of sight from certain weapons to something important is also a good way to draw attention away from something else. Finally, you can also help them make choices by limiting their options.

Limited Choice
I mentioned above that chess players often focus on openings and endgames because of the limited number of variables (ie: choices) involved. Similarly, you can assist your predictive ability by limiting the number of choices your opponent has. You can achieve this in several ways. You can wipe out units, which limits his or her options. You can also focus on specific units, perhaps limiting your opponent's antitank options. You may also limit options by providing no good targets for certain units, either through deployment, movement and terrain or by simply not having them in your list. (If you have no vehicles or Monstrous Creatures, all those Lascannons will be pretty much useless. Alternately, you might limit your opponent's choices by offering only poor choices. A Lascannon doesn't do a lot to a tactical squad of Marines, but it does something. If the choice is to move the Lascannon in search of better targets (which are carefully out of line of sight here) or to plink away at Space Marines, many will choose to stay and plink at the Space Marines, since doing something feels better than doing nothing. Similarly, Krak missiles are nearly useless against a LandRaider, but if you wipe out better weapons and charge the LandRaider toward his army, those missiles will almost certainly take aim on the LandRaider.

Thinking Ahead
With all that understood, let's look at how to really think 2 and 3 turns ahead and anticipate your opponent's actions. Start by looking at the opposing army and finding the units that are likely to move and where and finding the units that are likely to stay in place. Visualize their movement or shooting as a ring of influence that is superimposed on the board. Determine their preferred targets in your army and how they might engage those targets. Make special note of those units that either have no clearly defined role or that seem to have a 'wild card' role. Next, look at ways that you can limit and influence your opponent's choices. Finally, pay attention to the objectives and what turn it currently is. By turn 3 or 4 you should start looking at your opponent's choices in terms of the end of the game. What do they need to achieve by the end of the game and what options do they have to succeed? While this seems like a lot of information and planning and plotting, experience will quickly make it smoother and almost automatic.

How do I use this?
Alright, now you are making faster decisions and starting to determine your opponent's moves ahead of time. What good does that do you? The old saying goes, "A stitch in time saves nine." This means that if you take care of something ahead of time, it will be much less work than waiting until later. If you recognize 2 turns ahead of time that the combat squad is the only unit that can reach the objective, you can easily throw a little firepower their way and watch them disappear. Similarly, if you recognize early that a few antitank guns will ravage your vehicles, some extra attention early on will make sure they aren't there to rob you of your rides. Finally, understanding the likely direction and flow of the battle will allow you to position your forces more effectively and concentrate them where they will be most needed.

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