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List Selection and Unit Efficiency.

Analyze This!
Go down the list and analyze each entry in the codex. You are looking for the options where Cost, Survivability and Effectiveness cross each other. That doesn't mean you find the most effective one. That doesn't mean you find the most survivable one. You find the one with the best combination of Survivability, Cost and Effectiveness.

So Who's the Bad Guy here?
To do this, you'll also need to figure out an opponent for them. Since Marine Equivalents are my most common opponent (Space Marines, Chaos, Necrons, f'rexample) I'll be using them. If your opponents are different, use your judgement.

Clarifying Example Time:
Tyranid Hormagaunts. We'll start with Close Combat Effectiveness. The basic equation here is (Number of Attacks)x(Chance to hit)x(Chance to Wound)x(Chance to fail save) and the answer is expressed in terms of dead Space Marines per Hormagaunt.

Basic Hormagaunt: 10pts 3 attacks 4+ to hit (1/2) 5+ to Wound, 2 or less to fail save= 3x 1/2 x 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/6 or 0.166 Dead Space Marines per basic Hormagaunt.

WS5 upgrade:11pts 3x 2/3 x 1/3 x 1/3=2/9 or 0.222 Dead Space Marines

S4 upgrade: 12pts 3x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/3=1/4 or 0.25 DSM Both S4 and WS5: 13pts 3x 2/3 x 1/2 x 1/3=1/3 or 0.33 DSM

Doing it and Doing it Well
Obviously the 13pt Hormagaunt will kill the most of the three, but is it the most efficient in terms of cost? It might be more efficient to have a higher number of the cheaper ones. There are several ways to compute cost effectiveness. I'll use the equation (Cost) x (1/DSM) to get the amount it costs for every dead Space Marine.

Basic: 10 x (1/0.166=6)=60pts per DSM

WS5: 11 x (1/0.222=4.5)=49.5pts per DSM

S4: 12 x (1/0.25=4)=48pts per DSM

Both upgrades: 13 x (1/0.333=3)=39pts per DSM

In this case, it turns out that the most expensive one is also the most efficient one in terms of combat effectiveness, meaning you spend the least amount per dead enemy model. That used to be where I'd stop my calculations. There is another kind of efficiency, however. Defensive efficiency takes into account that these things will probably catch bullets on the way in and that the enemy will be striking back at them when they do make their attacks.

Note that either for offense or defense, don't bother with the upgrades you won't need. For example, if you want a Gunfex, don't bother calculating stuff for Scything Talons or Crushing Claws.

For defensive efficiency, we are looking at their survivability. For Tyranids, this means how many can get into combat and will live long enough to do their damage. This takes into account things like Toughness, Wounds and Armor Save, but it also includes things like striking at higher Initiative (since it will keep enemies from striking back) and faster movement (since it may mean less shooting.)

As an example, let's use Scything Talon Genestealers. They get 33% more combat power (an extra attack) for only 25% more expense. Good deal, right? Not necessarily, that means you have 25% fewer models. That means when you get shot up, you lose more combat power. Lets take 12 Basic Genestealers vs 9 Scything Talon Genestealers. If you lose 4 to Bolter fire, that leaves you with 8 basic ones or 5 ST ones. When you hit a squad of Space Marines, the first unit will kill 6 of them. The second unit will kill only 5.

The Equalizer
No matter how much extra combat power you give them, they still die the same against Bolters, unless you take something like Extended Carapace that improves their survival. Even Extended Carapace has it's limits, however. Sure, it saves you half the time against Bolters and other basic weapons. Heavy Weapons generally have at least AP4, however so they don't get additional protection against those. Depending on what you expect the enemy to have in terms of heavy weapons, Extended Carapace might or might not be worth it. (Against lots of Heavy Bolters and Assault Cannons, for example, you'd be better off with more basic Genestealers.) You might also decide to try Scuttlers, as the extra six inches should get them into combat on turn 2 rather than turn 3. It will, indeed, generally save you from a turn of fire, but it doesn't help you skip the rapid-fire zone like Leaping can for Hormagaunts. On the other talon, it does start you within Bolter range on the first turn, so they get good shooting right away. It also makes your Genestealers more expensive, which means you have fewer bodies to get to the target. You'd have to calculate which would be more effective for you.

Calculated Risk
After you finish your calculations, compare the offensive (combat) efficiency with the defensive (survival) efficiency. If you have a plan that will keep that unit from being attacked as much as normal (like, hiding it and charging out only after the enemy line is engaged by other units) then you can lean more toward the offensive efficiency side. If you are planning the unit as a fire magnet, something to draw the attention and fire of the enemy army, you'll want more defensive efficiency. If you just want the unit to be the best it can be, without leaning one way or the other, you'll have to try to find the happy medium, the point where you get the most bang for your buck when you hit the target, without it costing you too much to get it there.Once you have found your ideal unit, move on to look at the rest of the army list. Don't neglect other unit choices. Go through all of them and compare them to find out which one is best at what you are looking for.

Surprise!
You may occasionally find some surprises. As an example, when I originally started Tyranids, back in the beginning of 3rd Edition, before we had a codex, most people put Hormagaunts in front to shield their bigger Tyranids and Genestealers. After looking at the numbers a little bit, I realized that a 105pt Carnifex blocked a heck of a lot more fire than 11 Hormagaunts.

Once I realized that, I put my Carnifi up front, and hid the Genestealers behind them. The Genestealers were more effective than the Carnifi at close combat, and the Carnifi were the most effective in the defensive role, so that's how I used them. At the time, most people wouldn't have thought to put Carnifi out front, they'd simply choose between Termagants and Hormagaunts. By looking at the rest of the list thoroughly, I found something that no one else had tried, and it worked exceptionally well.

Putting it all together
Once you have analyzed the whole list, it's time to put it together. First come up with a Theme or Focus for your army. Use one that it can actually do. Footslogging Word Bearers aren't nearly as good as Footslogging Orks, for example. While there will be occasions that taking an unusual theme for your army can work, generally each army is really good at one or two things, and if you do something different, you'll be at a disadvantage. As an example, let's take Shooty-themed Tyranids. While there are a lot of great options for shooting, and some of them are very effective, by itself it can't outshoot really shooty armies like Tau. It also emphasizes shooting so much that it struggles against close combat armies. On the other hand, by using Psychic Scream, I get an edge on most of the shooty armies, and by using Genestealers as my Troops, I have a leg up on close combat armies. It took a lot of work to find that balance, however, work I wouldn't have to do if I had stuck with a more standard Tyranid close combat army.

Natural Selection
Once you've selected your Theme or Focus, then take the most efficient units for that theme and compare them. Using the example of a Devourer Tyrant Vs. Devourer Carnifex. The Tyrant gets 12 S5 shots and has BS4, compared to the 8 S6 shots and BS3 of the Carnifex. Doing the math, the Carnifex will kill about 2 Space Marines per turn while the Tyrant will kill about 3. The Tyrant is slightly more expensive, but not 50% more, so you would want to choose it over the Carnifex until you've taken your 2 HQ slots. Then you'd start taking the Carnifi, unless you find something that works better. Basically, find the best thing you can get, then take as much of it as you can, then go to the next level and take the best of that.

The Cream of the crop
Take the best of the best, unless you need something specific. For example, Tyranid Elites. It's nigh impossible to beat a Devourerfex in terms of killing power and survival, but if you need more Synapse coverage, you need Warriors. Alternately, you might need the special rules of the Lictor. As you go through your list, keep your theme in mind and make choices based on how well they implement the theme or complement other choices. Using my Genestealers as an example, they don't help my shooting theme, but they can be hidden behind the wall of Monstrous Creatures that are doing my shooting, then come out to deal with assault units that move up, or mop up whatever is left of the enemy lines. Taking too many of them, however, would hinder my shooty theme, so I make sure that I use up most of my other slots first before picking how many Genestealers I'll be taking.

The Setup
Once you have analyzed all your options and chosen the best units and the best combinations of units, put it all together and take a look at it. Then lay it out. Actually put the units out in the ways that they will support each other best. Laying them out like this helps find any issues with your plan before you get them on the board. (Oh man! that vehicle will block the line of sight that this unit needs!) Also practice actual deployment in the typical order (Heavy Support, Troops, Elites, HQ, Fast Attack) and make sure that you can place them where you want them. Using my Shooty Godzilla army as an example once again, I want my Elite Carnifexes to be on the front lines where they can shoot the soonest and act as a shield wall for my Genestealers. On the other talon, Genestealers are troops, so they must be placed beforehand. This means I need to leave room for my Carnifi to be placed in front of the Genestealers. In missions where you must place a certain distance away from enemy units, that means that I'll have to use my Heavy Support Carnifi to push the enemy line back enough to leave that space for the Elite Carnifi to be placed later.

Now that we've covered List Selection and Unit Efficiency, next is Before the Game and Planning the Game.

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